Investors should view any bounce-back in bank stocks as an opportunity to exit the pack, analysts suggested, as the worst may not be over yet. The recent quarterly results of HDFC Bank and Axis Bank disappointed the Street, triggering a marketwide selloff by foreign institutional investors, especially in banking counters. While HDFC Bank, which was the anchor for the market correction during the past week, ended 2 per cent higher amid short covering on Wednesday, Axis Bank's shares settled 3 per cent lower.
Though it was 2.7 per cent higher compared to the corresponding month last year, this could be just a blip if one look at the performance of individual components of the index.
In December 2014, it was (-)0.50 per cent.
The pharmaceuticals sector is expected to post a revenue growth of around 13.5 per cent and a net profit growth of 30.3 per cent for the third quarter of 2023-24 (FY24), riding on the approval for niche drugs in the US market, fall in raw material prices and correction in shipping rates. In the healthcare segment, hospitals are expected to post revenue growth of 13 per cent during the coverage, while net profit growth would be around 37 per cent, ICICI Securities said in a note. However, the performance may not be comparable on a sequential basis due to the offset of the festive season in Q3FY24, the analysts noted.
"Despite subdued growth in the world economy, India has maintained a GDP growth rate of 7.2 per cent in 2014-15, 7.6 per cent in 2015-16 and 7.1 per cent during April to September of 2016-17," the commerce and industry minister said in a written reply during Question Hour in the Lok Sabha.
Manufacturing output, which constitutes about 76 per cent of the industrial production, fell by an annual 6 per cent, the Statistical Office said.
Crude oil, fertiliser and cement recorded negative growth
While discount brokers have managed to grow at a rapid pace, they have not been successful in capturing substantial market share in the above-40 age category.
Industrial production, measured by the index of industrial production, slowed to a 20 month low of 1.6 per cent in December, from 2.7 per cent in November 2010.
Sugar prices in October were Rs 36-37 a kg, from where they fell by Rs 8-9 per kg.
The mutual fund (MF) industry had an action-packed 2023 as it tackled the scrapping of tax benefits for debt fund investors and surging flows into equity funds.
Expressing disappointment over the contraction in industrial growth in October, India Inc has appealed to the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates to revive the manufacturing sector and ameliorate investments.
'Given that debt AIFs, by nature, target a higher portfolio return, it is likely to attract investors like HNIs, family offices, etc, looking for a higher yield debt product.'
Focusing on low GDP growth in recent years, therefore, masks the deeper crisis facing manufacturing and mining.
Retail inflation inches up to 3.77%; IIP growth dips to 3-month low
As many as seven of eight core industries saw a contraction in output in September.
Poor industrial production & lower agri output to further drag GDP growth rates.
Inflation moderates, but government can and must do more.
India's industrial production contracted by 3.6 per cent in February, official data showed on Monday. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), manufacturing sector output declined by 3.7 per cent in February 2021. Retail inflation rose to 5.52 per cent in March, mainly on account of higher food prices, government data showed on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation stood at 5.03 per cent in February.
Stocks of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) have more headroom left despite the sharp run in the last few weeks, suggests a recent report from Morgan Stanley. Stocks of these oil refining and marketing companies (OMCs), it believes, are seeing multiples re-rate as investors reassess long-term growth prospects. "IOCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.2x, 19 per cent below +1 standard deviation (SD); BPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near historical averages; HPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near +1SD," Morgan Stanley said.
There is no use of the BJP targeting the likes of Mamata Banerjee and M K Stalin, directly by the party's political bosses, both in Delhi and the respective state capitals, or even using the Raj Bhavans to fire those salvos from. Successive elections have proved that it's counter-productive, if anything. But the BJP is yet to understand it, acknowledge it, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
A day before the Index of Industrial Production for August is to be made public, senior economists said on Monday that segments like capital goods -- which witnessed a production growth of 63 per cent in July against just 1.7 per cent a year ago -- will hopefully maintain the momentum.
Global markets trends, inflation, release of industrial output data and quarterly earnings will dictate movement of the equity benchmarks this week, analysts said, adding that volatility might continue amid slew of announcements of macroeconomic data at the global level too. Moreover, foreign fund movement, crude oil prices and trend in rupee would also act as major drivers for the equity market, they added. "The direction of global equity markets along with movement in dollar index and crude oil prices will continue to dominate while inflation numbers of the USA on May 11 and inflation and IIP numbers of India on May 12 will also cause volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Bajaj Finserv was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding around 3 per cent, followed by Bajaj Auto, Bajaj Finance, L&T, Asian Paints, Dr Reddy's, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and RIL. NSE Nifty finished 101.45 points down at 14,929.50.
The wholesale price-based inflation declined to over two-year low of 3.85 per cent in January on easing prices of manufactured items, fuel and power, even though food articles remained expensive. This is the ninth straight month of decline in the rate of wholesale price-index (WPI) based inflation. The WPI inflation was 4.73 per cent in January and 13.43 per cent in February, last year.
Meaningful market share would go to those who have the distribution strength to push their products, such as banks.
The S&P BSE Sensex zoomed 500 points to end at 27,627, the highest level in almost 9 months.
The domestic benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 - had lost close to 1.5 per cent in three days recently before gaining slightly. Notwithstanding weakness and volatility, the Nifty50 has managed to hold on to the 18,000 mark, while the Sensex has managed to stay above the 61,000 level. The performance of the stocks that comprise these front-line indices remains polarised.
IIP growth rises to 9-month high of 4.3 pc in August
The wholesale price-based inflation eased to a 29-month low of 1.34 per cent in March on easing prices of manufactured products and fuel items, even though food articles turned expensive.
According to the global research firm, though a sharp fall in WPI inflation and negative growth in Industrial production is exerting pressure on the RBI to cut rates, the quantum of rate cut will be more important than the timing.
The wholesale price-based inflation declined to a 21-month low of 5.85 per cent in November on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items. After remaining in double digits for 19 months, the wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation declined to 8.39 per cent in October. The inflation was 14.87 per cent in November 2021. "Decline in the rate of inflation in November 2022, is primarily contributed by fall in prices of food articles, basic metals, textiles, chemicals & chemical products and paper & paper products as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said on Wednesday.
Wholesale price-based inflation rate fell to a 3-year low of (-) 3.48 per cent in May on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items, strengthening the case for continuing with the pause in rate hike in the coming months of the current fiscal. This is the second straight month when WPI has been in the negative zone mainly on account of a higher base and falling prices of fuel and manufactured goods. Food prices also eased during May. In May, 2022 WPI inflation was at 16.63 per cent. Last month, it was (-) 0.92 per cent.
The greatest disconnect lies in the estimates of industrial growth.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased for the eighth consecutive month to 4.73 per cent in January on easing prices of manufactured items, fuel and power. The wholesale price-index (WPI) based inflation rate was 4.95 per cent in December 2022 and 13.68 per cent in January 2022. Inflation in food articles, however, rose to 2.38 per cent in January, from (-) 1.25 per cent in December, 2022.
The Industrial of Index Production was 1.9 per cent in April and 2.5 per cent in May last year, as per the data released by Central Statistical Organisation.
India's manufacturing sector continued with its robust performance in November, mainly on the back of substantial easing in price pressures and strengthening demand from clients, a monthly survey said on Friday. The strong performance of the manufacturing sector is expected to continue in 2024 as well. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 56 last month from the eight-month low level of 55.5 recorded in October.
The internals of the food inflation are worrying, given a broad-based uptick across categories that tend to be sticky, such as proteins, and a narrower-than-expected reduction in inflation for vegetables.
Given wild swings, investors are wondering where the metal market is going. There was a strong uptrend in industrial metal through much of the last three years due to fears of supply chain issues - first due to Covid-19 and then due to the Ukraine War. That uptrend broke down as it became apparent that global growth would moderate as inflation rose and Western Europe (the EU plus the UK) went into a near-recession and China was in a rolling lockdown.
The Index of Industrial Production grew 5.6 per cent in August, compared with a revised 15.2 per cent in July.
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